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February 7, 2016 Super Bowl 50

The St Louis Rams, in their last official game with that title, celebrated their upcoming return to Los Angeles after a 20 year banishment, by smothering their Super Bowl opponent Indianapolis Colts, (who are no threat to return to Baltimore) by a 20 – 17 score.  The Rams, who set an NFL record for sacks in a season, with 96, slammed NFL MVP Andrew Luck to the ground a record 8 times, invoking Super Bowl defensive domination memories of past Ravens’ (still in Baltimore) and Buccaneers’ (still in Tampa) victories.  A furious Luck rally of two fourth quarter touchdowns fell short when he fumbled on a late Nick Fairley sack.

The two league championship game upsets – Rams over Seahawks, and Colts over Bills, were predictors of the outcome, as all 3 games ended in the same 20-17 score.

In the latest off-season embarrassment for the league, a Super Bowl winning parade will actually be held in both St. Louis and Los Angeles.  The LA event will recycle Rose Bowl floats as well as 2016 Grand Marshall Keanu Reeves, and many would say it is a perfect embodiment of California culture to celebrate a fantasy.

So, now you know how the season will turn out.  Don’t you wish you could still place a bet?

None of this could top last year's Super Bowl, probably the most exciting ever, featuring “the call.”  In the game, Seattle was victimized by an incredible interception by New England cornerback Malcolm Butler.  While many blamed Pete Carroll for not just handing the ball to his beast running back, in actuality this was simply Karma doing some payback work.  Seattle was there by virtue of its incredible comeback victory over Green Bay in the NFC championship game, which broke the hearts of cheeseheads everywhere.  New England seemed on the verge of a 3^rd crushing Super Bowl upset featuring improbable receptions.  Instead, all football related Karma accounts have been squared except one.

Roger Goodell.

Saints prediction - the Saints will go 10-6. How did I build that prediction?  Start with a 1-1 split with the 3 division opponents, so that makes us 3-3.  The other 7 wins will be against Arizona, Philadelphia, Tennessee, Washington, Houston, Detroit, and Jacksonville, while the 3 additional losses will be Dallas, Indianapolis, and the New York Giants.  The Saints will win the division but get pounded in the first round by eventual champion Rams.

I know, it almost makes you not want to watch the season now that you know what’s going to happen.

I thought it would be fun to go back and look at my past prediction record.  It wasn’t. 

But, I’m man enough to own up to it, especially given that my den has been a recovery room after my knee surgery, so I’ve got nothing but time on my hand:

Season	Prediction			Actual
	Winner	Loser	Score	Winner	Loser	Score
2015	Rams	Colts	20 - 17
2014	Saints	Patriots	48-45	Patriots	Seahawks	28-24
2013	49ers	Broncos	17-16	Seahawks	Broncos	43-8
2012	Lions	Texans	28-24	Ravens	49'ers	34-31
2011	Saints	Texans	38-21	Giants	Patriots	21-17
2010	Saints	Texans	34-31	Packers	Steelers	31-25
2009	Saints	Chargers	42-38	Saints	Colts	31-17
2008	Saints	Patriots		Steelers	Cardinals	27-23

This takes me back to the beginning of the BP (Brees/Payton) era when I got out of the restaurant business to become a full time gambler on football, working out about equally well.  And you can see why, as I’ve only picked 3 of 14 Super Bowl participants during that time, although my pre-season prediction of the Saints to go all the way in 2009 made me famous, until everyone sees this chart which puts that prediction in the blind squirrel category.  History tells you that picking the New York Yankees to go all the way every year could be a reasonable bet.  Picking the Saints every year is just delusional.  Who would do dat?

Anyway, here’s my in-depth breakdown of the 2015 Saints, as formulated in several hypothesis both negative and positive.

Hypothesis #1 – It’s all about #9.  Drew has hinted now that he wasn’t healthy last year, thus the occasional “diminished arm strength” chorus, which I didn’t subscribe to.  But here’s why Franchise QB’s are so essential, and that when you look at the list of Super Bowl teams above, only Russell Wilson was not considered “elite” when he first appeared.   My definition of elite?  Forget all the stats.  At least half of all games will be undecided with 5 minutes left.  Mr. Elite is going to win you 5 to 7 in that final drive.  Last year Drew made mistakes in those situations several times, but he’s been very reliable since he arrived in New Orleans.  Expect a big year from Brees, and that alone improves the record over last year.

Hypothesis #2 – The Pre-season and Training Camp are of limited value when conducted the way the Saints do it.  In getting down to the 53 man limit and Practice Squad of 10, the Saints looked at about 100 players during the 6 week period, only to reject better than half of them and sign numerous rejects from other teams.  Watching the waiver wire is one thing.  Counting on it is another.  As of this moment 4 of 60, about 7% of the team, hadn’t seen a playbook until September.  It appears that about 19 players will be on the roster or practice squad that weren’t there last year – 30% of the personnel.  That is an indictment of the past, while also a commitment to change.  The question is, how fast can they mind meld into a cohesive unit?

Hypothesis #3 – Play within the division rarely determines the division winner.  Since all 8 divisions are 4-team now, familiarity breeds contempt in the form of a split.  The teams would seem to game plan daily, as well as draft to combat what they see in the division.  Tackle Cam Newton anyone?

Hypothesis #4 – Because of Hypothesis #1, the Saints are chasing SAQT (pronounced “sacked.”)  The Holy Grail is the Superstar Aging Quarterback Transition, SAQT.  Sure you hope you can duplicate Montana to Young, Favre to Rogers, or Manning to Luck, but chances are you won’t.   Chasing that grail is what lead the Saints to make one of their worst draft picks this year when they took Garret Grayson in the 3^rd round this year, depriving the Saints of a 2015 draft pick that could have been spent on a much-needed defensive player.  It was essentially a 2017 pick, as Brees probably is good for at least 2 more years.  I say this acknowledging that Grayson looks good and may be the eventual Brees replacement.  But remember Rodgers sat behind Favre 3 years, who left Green Bay and played 3 more years. And let’s say Favre had instead had another offensive or defensive weapon for those 6 years.  Ask Favre what he thinks.  Ask him what he could have done with Heath Miller, or Roddy White, who were drafted right after Rodgers.   It could be argued that Green Bay spent a draft pick on a QB 6 years too early!  Did the Saints just do that?  Well, here’s what they did do.  They speculated on a player that they really didn’t need, because they had a serviceable 3^rd stringer in Ryan Griffin, who instead they lost on waivers to Tampa – taking extensive playbook and organizational knowledge.  Now Tampa has a guy who knows too much about Drew Brees, how he thinks, how he practices, what he looks for, how he audibles – need I go on?  This greatly puts Hypothesis #3 at risk – it would be devastating to lose both games to Tampa.  This pick was a no-brainer, and the Saints had no brain, unless you are willing to make the argument that Green Bay knew Aaron Rodgers was going to be a league MVP, and you know the same about Grayson.  Tampa Bay is the home opener.  Yuk.

Hypthesis #5 – Maybe the draft isn’t that important since it was cut from 12 to 7 rounds.  The draft might be where you gamble on athletes.  It is now easy to write off the Saints 2014 draft last year as a complete loss, as only first rounder Brandin Cooks is left, after Stanley Jean-Batiste was cut Saturday, probably a year too late,( because it is not nearly as embarrassing to cut a 2014 in 2015 as it would have been to cut him in 2014.)  I call it a whiff, although they will say they were trying to develop a raw talent. 

But wait, there’s more to the story.  Let’s look at the Total Free Agent Class of 2014:

Safety Julius Byrd was the big free agent signing.  Since Sean Payton is stealing a page from the Belichick playbook and won’t discuss injuries, even his own, we’ll be generous and say that since Byrd is apparently in witness protection the jury is still out.  They’ve left him on the roster, so they are optimistic he can contribute to the Christmas Fund.  (And this year so far CJ Spiller is MIA – what is it with these Buffalo guys?)

But, undrafted Free Agents are a little more impressive.  It looks like Willie Snead and Brandon Coleman are going to start on offense, and 4 more players from last year’s undrafted free agent class are still around, making the team or the practice squad.

One more note.  The best NFL roster is probably the Seahawks and half of them are 7^th round or undrafted free agents.  So, maybe the draft isn’t that important anymore.  Particularly, when the offense is so hard to learn, if you are a receiver you will spend a year learning it (See Robert Meachum.)

Hypothesis #6   - The Saints are trying to use their keen eye for offensive talent and turn it into some equality.  Free Agent gem Chris Ivory was traded.  Crowd Favorite Darren Sproles was traded for a draft choice.  And most controversially, Jimmy Graham was traded for an offensive stud at center, and a draft choice turned into defense.  GM Mickey Loomis figures that the offense is always going to be top ten with Drew Brees and these moves dropped us from say 25 points a game to 22.  Neither win if we are constantly giving up 38.  Defense had to improve.  The running game has to improve so the defense is on the field less.  (Anyone sold on Mark Ingram yet?)  It looks like they are hoping Brandon Coleman at 6’6” will be a Graham-like end zone target.  So, my hypothesis is that Coleman will be 62% of Graham and Marcus Murphy will be 86% of Sproles.  I’m betting Murphy is the impact player of this draft class, and he’s taking meaningful backfield snaps by mid-year. 

Hypothesis #7 – In the first game it will take about a half to determine if the Saints will have a better year by counting how many times they’ve hit Carson Palmer.  The Saints are so desperate for a pass rush, that 7 of 11 listed on the defensive line are new to the team.   For the Saints to move up, a pass rush is the key, and I don’t mean Rob Ryan’s propensity to “send the house” on the pivotal plays of a game, to disastrous results.  I mean front four pressure.  Unfortunately there’s rustling in the wind about Cameron Jordan’s role in a local disturbance, and that is the last thing the Saints need right now.  If the Saints can start 2-1, they can have a decent year.  If not, hunker down, the football levees could break like they have 2 of the last 3 years.

But, I'm still going with 10 - 6.  In BP we trust.