Oscar Predictions

The year is 1993.  The Oscar for the best picture of 1992 goes to Unforgiven, Clint Eastwood’s definitive western.  Scent of a Woman (pretty bad), The Crying Game (a one impact-scene movie), and Howard’s End (the yearly high-end British entry) are close behind and anticipation is high that it’s too close to call between the 4 pictures.

The fifth movie is a throw-in, considered undeserving given it’s dearth of other nominations.  Only one nomination of consequence – supporting actor.

That next year another western goes virtually unnoticed, and doesn’t score a single nomination, even a much deserved supporting actor nomination. 

The movies in question – A Few Good Men and Tombstone – are now beloved and watched over and over while the other movies have faded into the rarely-viewed stratosphere of obscurity.  Val Kilmer’s turn as Doc Holiday is epic, and no one remembers who won the Oscar that year.  But it wasn’t Jack “You need me on that hill,” Nicholson nor Val “I’m your Huckleberry” Kilmer the next year.

And that’s just 1993.

So, as I make my Oscar predictions keep in mind that they will be about as much a prediction of a movie’s future status as the Oscar’s themselves.  Little to none.  As little as a Little Emperor.

In a year of great movies, I can truthfully say I have no idea which ones will hold up and which ones will be classics 20 years from now.  I think I only missed 3 or 4 predictions last year.  I’m not nearly as confident this year.

So here are my predictions:

Best Picture

Should win:  The Imitation Game.  Only because it was my favorite of the pictures I saw.
Will Win – Boyhood, because it is an amazing technical achievement, although Birdman is actually the favorite and has the momentum

Birdman is the strangest movie of the nominees, so I have no idea how it will hold up.  Could be a classic – could be forgotten in a year, and I have no idea which.

Best Actor:
Should win:  Benedict Cumberbatch for a wonderful performance in The Imitation Game

Will Win:  Eddie Redmayne for a terrific performance as Stephen Hawking.  The best upset chance of the night is probably Bradley Cooper in this category, but the race appears close between Redmayne and Michael Keaton.

Best Actress:

Should win and will win:  Julianne Moore for Still Alice

Best Director:

Should win:  Christopher Nolan for Interstellar.  That’s right, he wasn’t even nominated, but he continues to be the most innovative, underappreciated visionary in movies.
Will win:  Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Best Supporting Actress;

Should and Will Win:  Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

Best Supporting Actor:

Should and Will Win:  JK Simmons for Whiplash

Other Predictions:

Best Adapted Screenplay – The Imitation Game

Best Original Screenplay – Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Animated Feature Film – How to Train Your Dragon 2

Best Foreign Language Film – Ida

Best Documentary – Citizenfour

Best Documentary Short Subject – Crisis Hotline:  Veterans Press 1

Best Original Score – Interstellar

Best Original Song – Glory, from Selma

Best Sound Editing – American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing – American Sniper

Best Production Design – Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Cinematography – Birdman

Best Makeup – Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Costume Design – Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Editing – Boyhood

Best Visual Effects – Dawn of Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Short – The Dam Keeper

Best Live Action Short – Parvaneh 

More importantly, this is the official end of the potato chip season at our house that began with football season, and tonight I will try to put the chips away until September.  And after the Oscars, I may cue up one of my favorite movies, LA Confidential, an incredible achievement that had the misfortune of coming out the same year as Titanic.  That’s the way it goes sometimes.  Or, maybe I’ll watch Raging Bull or try to save Private Ryan again.  It’s really ok, if you don’t win, you still might be a classic, and you’ll be singing in the rain for eternity.

At The Cinema - January 2015

Whiplash – 10

You’ll like this movie if you like music, drums, and drama.

In my formative music years of the 60’s all of us male types could pound out the great drum solo of In-a-Gada-da-Vida on the table at Burger King, even if we had no idea what the song was about.  We would wait til midnight and hope we would hear it on Beaker Street, a rock radio show on 50,000 watt KAAY in Little Rock that would often play the 17 minute version.  Drummers Ringo Starr, Keith Moon, Ginger Baker, john Bonham, Charlie Watts - they were the revered.

So, I grew up listening to guitars and drums.  That those two instruments have dominated pop music for over 50 years is certainly not what my parents expected.  Whatever happened to the big band era?

So finally, along comes a great drum movie.  It happens to lean toward jazz and those big bands, but make no mistake – the rock and roll foundation is here.

Miles Teller plays a young drummer trying to get through Shaeffer Performing Arts School in New York.  He aspires to join the highest jazz group in the school, run by the tyrannical conductor played by JK Simmons.  Simmons is a journeyman actor who has the role of his life here, and he delivers a slam dunk Oscar-destined performance.  His manipulations present the obstacle that his young musicians have to overcome to achieve greatness.  In the end this movie is about the dedication, persistence, and talent it takes to get to the top. 

This is one of those thrilling movies that tells its story in a logical, precise manner.  You can’t beat it.

Birdman (or the unexpected virtue of ignorance) – 8

This universally acclaimed movie comes flying in on a most erratic path.  A month ago Michael Keaton was the favorite for Best Actor, although the buzz has faded.  He plays an actor who previously starred as the superhero of the title.  Now he’s trying to put on a Broadway play and he’s getting help from a cast of characters played by Emma Stone, Amy Ryan, Naomi Watts, and Edward Norton who are all excellent, and all with problems that will rival his.

This movie is simply crazy.  Fantasy blends with reality, and there’s not a stable head in the bunch.  It’s hard to follow at times, and sometimes the point of it all is elusive.  But, there’s a rousing ending to it all, and it’s fun and even inspirational when it’s all said and done.