Saints Report #3 - September 27, 2020

The Saints have been on national television for the first three weeks of the NFL season, so Drew Brees and his battle with gravity has been a national discussion.  The National Sports Media pays little attention to the Saints most of the time, but a whiff of decline and the Saints are a hot topic.

The Saints lost to the Packers 37-30 on Sunday night in the Superdome.  The Saints hung closer than I really expected them to.  In the end the 36 year legendary quarterback outperformed the 41 year old one just enough to secure the victory. 

Late in the third quarter Alvin Kamara scored on a spectacular 52 yard run after catching a swing pass.  That tied the game at 27, as the 4^th quarter began.  The Saints defense, which played pretty well most of the night when they weren’t being called for pass interference, held the Packers at midfield on a 4^th down attempt.  The Saints took over.  They gained 8 yards on a pass to Murray.  Then came the turning point.  Brees went to the sidelines for Taysom Hill.  Hill fumbled on a 2^nd and 2 option play.  The Packers recovered and although the defense held the Packers to a field goal, It was a deflating moment.  Aaron Rodgers drove the Packers for a touchdown as the 2 minute warning approached and the game was history.

Here are the conclusions from this game:

First, the old Drew Brees showed up.  He was mostly efficient and crisp, if not perfect, and began to utilize his receivers more.  He still is hesitant to throw deep, but he hasn’t thrown deep since Devery Henderson left.  He isn’t a gunslinger anymore, but he still shows signs of life. The Saints have been dinking and dunking for 5 years.  

Secondly, the Saints running game was excellent.  It became apparent early that the Saints could run it at will, and that would accomplish a lot, like keep the clock running and MVP candidate Rodgers off the field. 

Third, rookies Cesar Ruiz and Alex Trautman contributed.  It looks like they can play, and since Andrus Peat’s weekly injury appears serious, Ruiz will get action. 

Fourth, Michael Thomas should have been NFL MVP last year.  He’s that good, and the Saints are just an average offense without him.  On third and long it does not appear Brees is willing to throw to anyone but Thomas near the sticks. 

Fifth, penalties remain a major problem.

Finally, and this is inescapable.  Sean Payton can not commit to running the ball for 4 quarters.  He simply doesn’t have the discipline.  If there was ever a game where it was called for, this was it.  Latavius Murray averaged 5 yards a carry, and it seemed like more.  Alvin Kamara averaged 10 yards a carry.  The Saints rushed 20 times for 122 yards.  They threw 36 passes.  Those numbers should have been reversed.  They began by dominating the line of scrimmage.  I’ve heard football defensive lineman talk many times about how tiring and demoralizing it is for a team to run the ball on a defense.  If the Saints had stuck with their ground game this would have been a 24-20 type game.  But Payton, the master of the passing game, just couldn’t resist.  In the series after the game’s only turnover, the Saints completed 3 passes for a total gain of 5 yards.  Only the Saints could do that.

I am a thankful fan.  I am grateful that Sean Payton is our coach and I don’t want his head on the chopping block.  I have no idea if he answers to anyone in terms of game strategy.  But, as great as Drew Brees is statistically, there’s a reason he only has one Super Bowl.  And I get it, we have a ball control, short passing game.  No one likes 2^nd and 2 more than me.  But, the best seasons have featured a run commitment, and the success the Saints had early last night evaporated, and there’s nothing harder than evaporation in the humidity of New Orleans.  It evaporated because the Saints ran the ball 41% of the time on a night that called for 61%.  It’s not in their DNA, but its time for a transfusion.  Payton wants to win shoot-outs.  He should want to just win games. 

I will close with this statistical addendum.  If you are a Saints fan, you know the records, and you can correlate when the Saints have had success with the percentage of times they run vs. pass in the B/P era.

2006:  45%
2007:  38%
2008:  39%
2009:  46% 
2010:  37%
2011:  39%
2012:  36%\
2013:  36%
2014:  38%
2015:  37%
2016:  37%
2017:  45%
2018:  48%
2019:  41%

 

 

Saints Report #2 - September 21, 2020

The NFL Raiders, ever the nomads, have settled in the Nevada desert.

Monday night the New Orleans Saints came to christen the latest home for the now Las Vegas Raiders.  The stadium is inexplicably named after something called “allegiant” but is nicknamed the Deathstar.  Thus the lure of liquidity forces another legendary sports franchise to abandon its roots, traditions, and fanbase. Ironic that the first season may play out in an empty stadium.

The Saints brought their stellar B/P era record of 16-7 on Monday Night Football to the Deathstar and got convincingly doused by Gruden’s 11.  The Saints lost 34-24 in a nice gesture to the Raiders and their new home.

On defense, the promise of last week’s “welcome-to-a-real-division” victory over the Brady bunch lasted about one quarter.  It was then that the Raiders showed their run/pass balance and the Saints defense could handle neither.  The running backs acted like they were on a honeymoon in Vegas, and Darren Waller spent the night revealing why the Raiders let Jared Cook get away.  Waller came up aces all night.  For 50 years we’ve watched the Saints make stars out of unknown quarterbacks.  Now, it’s tight ends.  Vernon Davis, George Kittle, and now Waller join the Hangover crew.  Slowing down productive tight ends is not in the Saints’ defensive playbook.  Unfortunately, pass interference is.  Any chance of a late rally was snuffed out when last week’s pick-six hero Janoris Jenkins played the goat role on a 3^rd and long bomb late in the game, when he mauled the receiver.  The Raiders parlayed their clock eating into a field goal to finish off the scoring.  The defense leads the league in penalties, and whichever team is second is going to have to double down to catch this group.

On offense, the Saints ran the ball a little, and threw the ball a little, but not nearly as efficiently as the Saints fans have come to expect.  Kamara was a handful all night, but the passing game still has not clicked.  Brees played the cooler and threw a crucial interception near the end of the first half (aren’t they all crucial?) and he took a lot of “arm strength” heat for it, but in watching it a couple of times, it was more of a tangled foot issue.  No excuse, because he shouldn’t have thrown it.  It was actually the missing of some open receivers that was more concerning.  Brees is 63 after all, and his great footwork is vital to his delivery.   He’s beginning to look human.  Saints fans have been treated to his 70% accuracy for so long, that 60% makes him look human.  The Saints vaunted offensive line struggled to protect him all night, when they weren’t getting called for holding.  When the Saints got behind, they had to ignore the don’t pass line and crank it up.

Unfortunately, there was no Michael Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders disappeared.  That left Tre’quan Smith, who did ok but is not a load carrier, and a couple of unknowns that Brees obviously doesn’t have confidence in yet.  Rookie Marques Callaway, an undrafted free agent, has made the team, and rookies don’t often play for Payton, so he must have some promise.  Veteran Bennie Fowler, who Brees drafted this year after some practice sessions, couldn’t get open.  Things are different in the pocket these days for Brees.  Payton and Brees have been Siegfried and Roy for a long time, but the magic is coming to an end, and father time is a white tiger ready to take a bite.  Decision time is looming for Loomis and Payton as to how long they can press this bet.  This is the year they were all in, and the season’s start is more “fear and loathing” than “viva.”  A tough schedule is no help.

Garry Shandling used to tell a joke that as he approached Las Vegas he would just start throwing money out of his car window just to get used to losing it.   

Let’s hope this game is just a blip and it stays in Vegas.  Saints fans don’t want to get used to losing again.

 

Saints Report # 1 - September 13, 2020

The new look Tampa Bay Buccaneers came to the former Louisiana Superdome, soon to be former Mercedes Benz Superdome, soon to be the Dominos’ Superdome, hoping to surprise the Saints without their customary loud home field advantage. It wasn’t to be. The steady but unspectacular Saints held off the not quite ready Bucs, 34-23. 

Don’t let the score fool you. Both defenses played pretty well, and both offenses sputtered most of the day. There were a couple of big plays that made the difference There were two aging veteran quarterbacks on the field and to be honest they looked it most of the time. Brady threw two interceptions, one a pick 6 by Janorius Jenkins that was a big difference as the second half began, and Brees’ 48 yard completion to Jared Cook early in the 4th quarter was the big play the Saints needed to regain momentum after a dismal third quarter. Brees couldn’t get the ball to Michael Thomas at his usual steady rate but Emmanual Sanders contributed a couple of plays, including a touchdown grab and the Saints lead was insurmountable. 

The Saints repeatedly had wide runs blown up for losses and depended on special teams for help, as they blocked a field goal and recovered a short kick off that was fumbled by the Bucs. The Bucs were sloppy and out of sync in their first game with Brady at the helm, and the Saints were slightly better. Let’s just say it goes as a W and the faithful can be happy with that. 

The victory brought a sigh of relief to apprehensive Saints fans, as they are not used to fast starts to the season. Last year’s victory over the Texans broke an inexplicable 5 game losing streak in season openers. Up to that point they had been 1-7 in the last 8. The Saints are now 147-93 since the 2006 arrival of Payton and Brees but only 7-8 in the 15 games that have opened the season. 

Here’s the New Orleans Saints record in season openers in the Payton/Brees era. 

2006 beat Cleveland 19-14, finished 10-6
2007 lost 41-10 to Indianapolis, finished 7-9
2008 beat Tampa Bay 24-20, finished 8-8
2009 beat Detroit 45-27, finished 13-3, Super Bowl Champs
2010 beat Minnesota 14-9, finished 11-5
2011 lost 42-34 to Green Bay, finished 13-3
2012 lost 40-32 to Washington, finished 7-9 Payton suspended for year
2013 beat Atlanta 23-17, finished 11-5
2014 lost 37-34 to Atlanta, finished 7-9
2015 lost 31-19 to Arizona, finished 7-9
2016 lost 35-34 to Oakland, finished 7-9
2017 lost 29-19 to Minnesota, finished 11-5
2018 lost 48-40 to Tampa Bay , finished 13-3
2019 beat Houston Texans 30-28, finished 13-3
2020 beat Tampa Bay 34-23, finished ????

So in the last few days I’ve developed a theory as to why this record of frustration. Maybe it’s a compliment to the Saints coaching staff. They are good at studying game film and putting together a game plan, but in the first game of the season, that is a tall order. The Saints get better as the season goes on. The Bucs will be doing the same. You can bet Brady can’t wait for the rematch.

The Saints lead the division as both Carolina and Atlanta fell. It’s like that old joke, what do you call 3 lawyers at the bottom of the ocean? A good start.

NFL Preview 2020

Dateline:  May 2, 2021  Tampa Florida

Patrick Mahomes broke the hearts of Florida residents when he thwarted the Tampa Bay Bucs’ attempt to become the first home team to capture a Super Bowl by leading a 42-12 trouncing over Tom Brady and the Bucs.  Mahomes threw 5 touchdown passes at Merrill Lynch Stadium to lead the rout in dehydrating spring-time heat.  The game, finally played after the season was delayed repeatedly, and the playoffs took two months to complete, was a blow out reminiscent of old Super Bowls.  Said losing coach Bruce Arians, “I feel like I aged two years during the playoffs, and I was obviously not the only one on my team who felt that way.”  History was made even during the 3 week break before the game when Merrill Lynch bought the naming rights to the stadium from Raymond James for a record $4 billion, just days before kickoff.  That transaction almost matched the bizarreness of the halftime show pairing of Taylor Swift and Jimmy Buffett, continuing the recent trend of “more is less.”  All of this finally brought down the curtain on the longest pro sports season ever, which was not surprising after the NBA finals ended right before their next season began, and the World Series had to be moved due to December snow storms.

That’s how the NFL Season will end.  How will it begin?  The NFL barrels into the season with billions of dollars of revenue at stake, and millions to spend to protect that flow.  Amidst the twin 2020 crisis of civil unrest and pandemic, they’ve got the resources to tackle both head-on.  Thus they have implemeted sophisticated testing, contact tracing, and social distancing that communities can not afford.  The show must go on.  The NFL is too big to fail

As for the social issues, there’s a scene in my favorite movie, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, in which Senator Jefferson Smith, played by Jimmy Stewart, is beginning his famous filibuster and is asked by a fellow Senator if he will yield the floor.  He replies “no sir, I yielded the floor once before, if you can remember, and I was practically never heard of again.”

Which brings me to Drew Brees, who made one seemingly patriotic comment in an interview in the offseason.  To put it mildly, he failed to read the room, and he was almost buried.   It went viral, and a firestorm began which will probably taint him forever.  Imagine now what his life will be like from this day forward.  Instead of people walking up to him (literally, and on-line) and saying how much they appreciate all he has done for Louisiana, or recalling where they were when he threw a certain pass, won a Super Bowl, or broke a record, there is a 50/50 chance he will get scorn.  Somehow he has become the face of a political issue, which if on-line chatter is to be believed, will lower interest in pro sports (although a poll shows that 62% of the public support pro athletes taking a social stance.) His picture is featured on memes that are circulated daily.  Not Colin Kapernick.  Drew Brees.  I often say we live in a 50/50 world now, where you can say “the sky is blue,” and half the world will say “it’s beautiful,” and the other half will say “it’s a conspiracy.”  Brees is the victim of the division haunting our country, but he seems as focused and motivated as ever.  If he wants to cap his career with a Super Bowl victory, there is one clear way to do it – take the lead as the clock expires.  He has almost been too efficient, leaving the Vikings, Rams, and the Vikings again too much time on the clock to mount playoff comebacks of their own.  Too efficient – sad but true.

So, with the season about to start with no fans in stadiums, and pumped in crowd noise, (a big mistake in my opinion - I’d rather hear grunting and colorful language) the political atmosphere can’t be ignored. 

It will hang over the NFL season and make each pre-game ceremony a yakking point for the week.  At this time of year, I usually predict how the Saints will fare.  This year, I have no idea.  Talent wise, they are strong.  But will their locker room stay united?  And how the NFC South has changed!  Carolina has a new hot coach and Teddy Bridgewater, and Tampa Bay has stockpiled a nuclear arsenal on offense.   Yet, it’s not usually that simple.  As the season ended last year, I had convinced myself that San Francisco and Kansas City were super teams which would meet in Super Bowls for years to come.  In fact, they are so loaded, that they would return to the Super Bowl in a clash of undefeateds this year.  Then came a pandemic and protests, and the world went crazy.

So, back to the chemistry.  While Brees has apparently reconciled with his teammates, not so with some of the opponents he will play.  The NFL has approximately 70% black players (the NBA is about 75%) and several players have said they want to take Brees’ head off.  The Brees/Payton years have brought the Saints into an era of sports relevance that many fans may now take for granted.  Sure, we probably should have won another Super Bowl or three, but in a year that is probably the last for Brees, I had hoped to savor the moment.  Instead 2020 and real life has intervened.  While Brees and Brady have slowed their aging process, Father time is still undefeated.  I remember Brett Favre’s last few years when he was a turnover machine late in playoff games (once to our great relief) and we can’t ignore that while the Saints’ seasons have ended with Brees on the sideline, let’s not kid ourselves.  The Saints made critical mistakes late.  Time’s running out.  Before long Brees (and Brady) will be looking for their keys just like the rest of us.

So, my prediction is this:  11-5 at best for the Saints and that’s if Alvin Kamara is healthy and all-in and our defensive backfield is better than I think it is.  The offense may lead the NFL, but will stall in the playoffs.  As always, the NFL will be heavily influenced by injuries and possible illness.  I think Tampa Bay will start slowly, but get stronger as the season progresses and get past New Orleans, San Francisco, Seattle, Green Bay, Philladelphia and Dallas in the NFC.  In the AFC I think the Ravens will threaten Kansas City, although I think if Lamar Jackson continues to run, he’s going to get hurt.  It’s not if but when.  So I see Baltimore, Indianapolis, New England, Houston, Buffalo and Pittsburgh falling short in the playoffs.

The important thing is that the NFL gets us to 2021.  It’s too big to fail. 

Isn’t it?

 

Add caption