My Annual Oscar Predictions

It’s time for my Oscar preview, and my first prediction is that viewership will be down again. 

What you’ll miss if you don’t tune it is some recognition of some good movies, and a few great ones. But mostly you will miss what may be the single most competitive category ever. I’ll save that for last: Here goes: 

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Tenet
Should win: Tenet. At least we understood how fantastic the effects were, if nothing else 

Best Sound
Will win: The Sound of Metal
Should win: The Sound of Metal, as sound was what it was all about.

Best Editing
Will win: The Sound of Metal
Should win: The Sound of Metal

Best Makeup and Hair
Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, just for Viola Davis’ transformation

Best Costume Design
Will win: Mank
Should win: Ma Rainey

Best Production Design
Will win: Mank
Should win: The Father. After watching the movie, watch the you tube video explaining the sets.

Best Original Song
Will win: Speak Now
Should win: Speak Now, from One Night in Miami

Best Score
Will win: Minari
Should win: Soul, but Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are also nominated for Mank, so their vote may split.

Best Cinematography
Will win: Nomadland
Should win: Nomadland. This was the standout feature of this movie for me

Best International Feature Film
Will win: Another Round (I didn’t see it)
Should win: Collective, which is mind blowing

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: My Octopus Teacher
Should win: Collective, by a nose, but Octopus has late momentum and it is also fantastic

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Soul
Should win: Soul, because it’s the only one I saw 

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Nomadland
Should win: The Father, for layer upon layer of brilliance

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Promising Young Woman
Should win: Promising Young Woman, a full load of creativity

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah (which I haven’t seen)
Should win: Paul Raci, for a low-key but stunning true supporting role

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Youn Yuh-jung for Minari
Should win: Youn Yuh-jung in a surprisingly weak field

Best Director
Will win: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Should win: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman

Best Actor
Will win: Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey, the lock of the night
Should win: Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal

Best Picture
Will win: Nomadland
Should win: The Sound of Metal 

Best Actress (ranked by their chances)
Will win: Viola Davis (Carey Mulligan, Andra Day, Francis McDormand, Vanessa Kirby) Any of the first 4 could win, and I’d be happy. I didn’t see Kirby (only because of the subject matter at this moment in my life)
Should win (ranked by their performance): Andra Day (Mulligan, Davis, McDormand,) I’ve saved the best for last, because the Best Actress Category is phenomenal. I will be happy for any that win. I’ll actually be rooting for Mulligan. I remember the year that Streisand and Hepburn tied, and if this turned out to be a 4 way tie, it would be fine with me. The most interesting and competitive category of the night, which is why I saved it for last:

The thing about movies and the Oscars is that you never know which movie will stand the test of time. Saving Private Ryan is now a classic, but lost to Shakespeare in Love, and I was one of the few that agreed at the time. 

The Social Network and Inception both lost to The King’s Speech which I disliked.
I liked Get Out more than The Shape of Water
I liked La La Land, Arrival, and Hacksaw Ridge all more than Moonlight
I liked Whiplash and The Imitation Game more than Birdman
I liked The Sixth Sense more than American Beauty
But, that’s while I’ll be watching. Enjoy what will probably be another pandemic-weird show.