Monday, September 28, 2020

Saints Report #3 - September 27, 2020

The Saints have been on national television for the first three weeks of the NFL season, so Drew Brees and his battle with gravity has been a national discussion.  The National Sports Media pays little attention to the Saints most of the time, but a whiff of decline and the Saints are a hot topic.

The Saints lost to the Packers 37-30 on Sunday night in the Superdome.  The Saints hung closer than I really expected them to.  In the end the 36 year legendary quarterback outperformed the 41 year old one just enough to secure the victory. 

Late in the third quarter Alvin Kamara scored on a spectacular 52 yard run after catching a swing pass.  That tied the game at 27, as the 4th quarter began.  The Saints defense, which played pretty well most of the night when they weren’t being called for pass interference, held the Packers at midfield on a 4th down attempt.  The Saints took over.  They gained 8 yards on a pass to Murray.  Then came the turning point.  Brees went to the sidelines for Taysom Hill.  Hill fumbled on a 2nd and 2 option play.  The Packers recovered and although the defense held the Packers to a field goal, It was a deflating moment.  Aaron Rodgers drove the Packers for a touchdown as the 2 minute warning approached and the game was history.

Here are the conclusions from this game:

First, the old Drew Brees showed up.  He was mostly efficient and crisp, if not perfect, and began to utilize his receivers more.  He still is hesitant to throw deep, but he hasn’t thrown deep since Devery Henderson left.  He isn’t a gunslinger anymore, but he still shows signs of life. The Saints have been dinking and dunking for 5 years.  

Secondly, the Saints running game was excellent.  It became apparent early that the Saints could run it at will, and that would accomplish a lot, like keep the clock running and MVP candidate Rodgers off the field. 

Third, rookies Cesar Ruiz and Alex Trautman contributed.  It looks like they can play, and since Andrus Peat’s weekly injury appears serious, Ruiz will get action. 

Fourth, Michael Thomas should have been NFL MVP last year.  He’s that good, and the Saints are just an average offense without him.  On third and long it does not appear Brees is willing to throw to anyone but Thomas near the sticks. 

Fifth, penalties remain a major problem.

Finally, and this is inescapable.  Sean Payton can not commit to running the ball for 4 quarters.  He simply doesn’t have the discipline.  If there was ever a game where it was called for, this was it.  Latavius Murray averaged 5 yards a carry, and it seemed like more.  Alvin Kamara averaged 10 yards a carry.  The Saints rushed 20 times for 122 yards.  They threw 36 passes.  Those numbers should have been reversed.  They began by dominating the line of scrimmage.  I’ve heard football defensive lineman talk many times about how tiring and demoralizing it is for a team to run the ball on a defense.  If the Saints had stuck with their ground game this would have been a 24-20 type game.  But Payton, the master of the passing game, just couldn’t resist.  In the series after the game’s only turnover, the Saints completed 3 passes for a total gain of 5 yards.  Only the Saints could do that.

I am a thankful fan.  I am grateful that Sean Payton is our coach and I don’t want his head on the chopping block.  I have no idea if he answers to anyone in terms of game strategy.  But, as great as Drew Brees is statistically, there’s a reason he only has one Super Bowl.  And I get it, we have a ball control, short passing game.  No one likes 2nd and 2 more than me.  But, the best seasons have featured a run commitment, and the success the Saints had early last night evaporated, and there’s nothing harder than evaporation in the humidity of New Orleans.  It evaporated because the Saints ran the ball 41% of the time on a night that called for 61%.  It’s not in their DNA, but its time for a transfusion.  Payton wants to win shoot-outs.  He should want to just win games. 

I will close with this statistical addendum.  If you are a Saints fan, you know the records, and you can correlate when the Saints have had success with the percentage of times they run vs. pass in the B/P era.

2006:  45%
2007:  38%
2008:  39%
2009:  46% 
2010:  37%
2011:  39%
2012:  36%\
2013:  36%
2014:  38%
2015:  37%
2016:  37%
2017:  45%
2018:  48%
2019:  41%


 

 

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