The Saints have been on national television for the first
three weeks of the NFL season, so Drew Brees and his battle with gravity has been
a national discussion. The National Sports Media pays little attention to the Saints most of the time, but a whiff of decline and the Saints are a hot topic.
The Saints lost to the Packers 37-30 on Sunday night in the
Superdome. The Saints hung closer than I
really expected them to. In the end the
36 year legendary quarterback outperformed the 41 year old one just enough to
secure the victory.
Late in the third quarter Alvin Kamara scored on a spectacular
52 yard run after catching a swing pass.
That tied the game at 27, as the 4th quarter began. The Saints defense, which played pretty well
most of the night when they weren’t being called for pass interference, held
the Packers at midfield on a 4th down attempt. The Saints took over. They gained 8 yards on a pass to Murray. Then came the turning point. Brees went to the sidelines for Taysom
Hill. Hill fumbled on a 2nd
and 2 option play. The Packers recovered
and although the defense held the Packers to a field goal, It was a deflating
moment. Aaron Rodgers drove the Packers for
a touchdown as the 2 minute warning approached and the game was history.
Here are the conclusions from this game:
First, the old Drew Brees showed up. He was mostly efficient and crisp, if not
perfect, and began to utilize his receivers more. He still is hesitant to throw deep, but he hasn’t
thrown deep since Devery Henderson left.
He isn’t a gunslinger anymore, but he still shows signs of life. The Saints have been dinking and dunking for 5 years.
Secondly, the Saints running game was excellent. It became apparent early that the Saints
could run it at will, and that would accomplish a lot, like keep the clock
running and MVP candidate Rodgers off the field.
Third, rookies Cesar Ruiz and Alex Trautman
contributed. It looks like they can play,
and since Andrus Peat’s weekly injury appears serious, Ruiz will get
action.
Fourth, Michael Thomas should have been NFL MVP last
year. He’s that good, and the Saints are
just an average offense without him. On
third and long it does not appear Brees is willing to throw to anyone but
Thomas near the sticks.
Fifth, penalties remain a major problem.
Finally, and this is inescapable. Sean Payton can not commit to running the
ball for 4 quarters. He simply doesn’t
have the discipline. If there was ever a
game where it was called for, this was it.
Latavius Murray averaged 5 yards a carry, and it seemed like more. Alvin Kamara averaged 10 yards a carry. The Saints rushed 20 times for 122 yards. They threw 36 passes. Those numbers should have been reversed. They began by dominating the line of
scrimmage. I’ve heard football defensive
lineman talk many times about how tiring and demoralizing it is for a team to
run the ball on a defense. If the
Saints had stuck with their ground game this would have been a 24-20 type
game. But Payton, the master of the
passing game, just couldn’t resist. In
the series after the game’s only turnover, the Saints completed 3 passes for a
total gain of 5 yards. Only the Saints
could do that.
I am a thankful fan. I
am grateful that Sean Payton is our coach and I don’t want his head on the chopping
block. I have no idea if he answers to
anyone in terms of game strategy. But,
as great as Drew Brees is statistically, there’s a reason he only has one Super
Bowl. And I get it, we have a ball
control, short passing game. No one
likes 2nd and 2 more than me.
But, the best seasons have featured a run commitment, and the success the
Saints had early last night evaporated, and there’s nothing harder than
evaporation in the humidity of New Orleans.
It evaporated because the Saints ran the ball 41% of the time on a night
that called for 61%. It’s not in their
DNA, but its time for a transfusion. Payton
wants to win shoot-outs. He should want
to just win games.
I will close with this statistical addendum. If you are a Saints fan, you know the records, and you can correlate when the Saints have had success with the percentage of times they run vs. pass in the B/P era.
2006: 45%
2007: 38%
2008: 39%
2009: 46%
2010: 37%
2011: 39%
2012: 36%\
2013: 36%
2014: 38%
2015: 37%
2016: 37%
2017: 45%
2018: 48%
2019: 41%
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