Oscar Predictions

Couldn’t  let the Oscars go by without my erstwhile predictions.  Despite the fact that I saw over 50 movies this year, I still didn’t see two of the Best Picture nominees (Life of Pi and Armour) yet.
Here is what I think.

Best Picture
Will win – Argo
Should win – Lincoln.  While Argo is a good movie, I can’t figure its momentum to this victory.  It’s solid and methodical, but the other two historical dramas, Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty are much more compelling.

Best Actor
Will win – Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win – Daniel Day-Lewis.  He won this the moment he was cast as Abraham Lincoln.  I can’t add anything to the accolades for this magical performance, but this will make Day-Lewis the first male actor to win 3 Best Acting Oscars, and that will be an amazing accomplishment.

Best Actress
Will win – Jennifer Lawrence
Should win – Jessica Chastain, but Lawrence is certainly deserving as well.  There is a great new wave of young actresses and Lawrence, Chastain, Hathaway, and Adams are the new face of Hollywood.

Best Supporting Actress
Will win – Anne Hathaway
Should win – Hathaway, for her stunning 15 minutes in Les Miserables which only highlighted the inadequacies of the rest of the cast.  Amy Adams was also terrific and could pull an upset.

Best Supporting Actor
Will win – Robert DeNiro
Should win – Nobody, out of this group.  DeNiro plays himself for the 10^th consecutive time, and only Tommy Lee Jones was worthy of a nomination. 

Best Director
Will win – Steven Spielberg
Should win – The not-even-nominated  Christopher Nolan for Dark Knight Rises.  Hollywood continues to ignore Nolan, but this was actually my favorite movie of the year, and he leaves amazing fingerprints on his films.  It’s not unusual for the Oscars to ignore fan favorites (see Star Wars), but Nolan’s work is so innovative and remarkable, how long can this go on?

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win – Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
Should win – Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty, an incredibly important work

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win – Chris Terrio for Argo
Should Win – Tony Kushner for Lincoln

Big Winner for the night – Seth McPharlane