Oscar Preview

No self respecting film critic (is that what I think I am?) lets the Oscars come and go without running their mouth.

For 20 years I couldn’t wait for the Siskel & Ebert Oscar show when they’d tell us who should win. Unfortunately, Gene Siskel has left us and Roger Ebert has been (vocally) silenced by cancer, so I’ll give you my gonna/shoulda.

Unfortunately, in recent years, the Oscars have become less suspenseful as clear favorites have emerged each year, but here goes:

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Mo’Nique for Push – She’s swept all the awards. I didn’t see it. Oops, guess I'm not much of a film reviewer
Should Win: Anna Kendrick. When you steal a movie from George Clooney and Vera Farmiga, you should win. She has no chance, but of the ones I saw, hers was the knockout performance.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds. He’s swept all the awards too
Should Win: Christoph Waltz and it’s not even close. When you hate a villain this much, you know he’s working some magic.

Best Actress
Will Win: Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Should Win: Sandra Bullock in The Proposal (I liked her even better in that movie). Actually, from a technical standpoint, what Meryl Streep did in Julie and Julia far outpaces Sandra, but Sandra’s got the momentum, the flashier role, and the usual “Lifetime of work” recognition on her side. Meryl’s going for the party. But don’t be surprised if she pulls the slight upset. The Academy can’t keep making Streep a bridesmaid when she’s churning out incredible performances year in, year out. Both were awesome.

Best Actress
Will Win: Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
Should Win: Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker. Sorry, he has no chance, but this portrait of an adrenaline junkie was a character study for the ages.

Best Director
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow for the Hurt Locker
Should Win: James Cameron for Avatar. These movies are both such incredible achievements, and so dissimilar, that I’ll be rooting for a tie. The fact that these two directors were once married makes this the most suspenseful race of the night, in a Jersey shore kind of way.

Best Picture
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: The Hurt Locker, by the tiniest of margins. While Avatar is a stunning achievement, the intensity of sitting in a theater watching The Hurt Locker has stayed with me for 9 months. I can’t wait to see it again, and yet I’m not sure if I can sit through it again. It’s a masterpiece, and definitely not for the faint of heart.

If Avatar wins it will be the highest grossing film to ever win Best Picture, and if The Hurt Locker beats it, it will be the lowest. Now, that’s suspense.

Other comments: Funny that in the year that the Academy decided to add five more pictures to the Best Picture pool, the second five clearly don’t belong. And the inclusion of District 9 (which I thought rivaled Planet 9 as one of the worst movies I’ve ever seen) instead of Star Trek strains all credibility.

In general, I suspect it will be an Avatar night, and it will be well deserved.
Pass the chips.