Saints Report #15 - Christmas Day 2020

Christmas did not come too late for Alvin and the Road Graters.

December football is different.  By this time of year, the war of attrition has thinned the ranks, and the game that was exotic and fancy in the first three quarters of the season has transitioned into one of power and dominance, best exhibited by a pound and ground running game.

The Saints unleashed their version on the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day to the tune of a 52-33 pasting that was only ensured with a 21 point 4th quarter..  Alvin Kamara tied an NFL record with 6 touchdowns as the Saints never punted.  They rammed the ball down the Vikings throat drive after drive in the rarest of NFL occurrences – a Friday game – on Christmas.  Kamara showcased his skills to a national TV audience, and it was quite the Christmas display.  The 6 rushing touchdowns in a game is a record that has stood since 1929, the longest NFL record on the books.  Kamara finished with 155 yards rushing, his personal best, and he now has 20 touchdowns on the season. Right now he's the best running back in the league, and given the absences of Brees and Michael Thomas, should be a bonafide MVP candidate.

Did you ever think that you would see the Saints score 52, and not a single point come from a Brees’ touchdown pass?  Well, it happened.  The Saints offensive line was a juggernaut, clearing massive holes for Kamara and Latavius Murray to the tune of 256 yards rushing.  This was a game where the passing game complimented the running game instead of vice versa.  The Saints probably could have won this game without throwing a single pass, that’s how dominant they were.  If not for 2 Brees’ interceptions, one of which was definitely not his fault as it glanced off Emmanuel Sanders for a pick, the Saints might have hung 60.  In fact, Kamara could have set an all-time record with 7 touchdowns, had not Sean Payton chosen to get Taysom Hill in on the action.  So, ten drives resulted in 7 touchdowns, 1 field goal and two turnovers.  We now know that an NFL team could score 70 points on a perfect day. 

The Vikings were eliminated from the playoffs, which had to be some measure of revenge for Payton, as the Vikings have bounced the Saints two of the last 3 years.  The Saints defense slowed Dalvin Cook much better than in last year’s playoff, but giving up 37 is not something to go have a parade over. 

And finally, this game socked away the Saints’ fourth straight division title.  With a win next week at Carolina, the Saints can finish off the first ever sweep of the NFC South.  I expect in the next few days Payton will be weighing the merits of that achievement vs giving Brees more rest and giving Jameis Winston a start.  If he chooses to rest Brees, and Brees retires as expected after the season, he will go down as the first quarterback to pass for 80,000 yards, a record he set during this game.  A nice little 4 or 5 game winning streak to finish his career would be the icing on the cake.  IF the Saints continue to RUN THE BALL, it’s entirely possible. 
 

Saints Report #14 - December 20, 2020

Let the record show that the Kansas City Chiefs came to the Superdome Sunday and beat the New Orleans Saints 32-29, dropping the Saints to 10-4 on the year.

In a few weeks all that will be remembered is the score.  But there’s a lot more to the story. 

Here it is:  The Kansas City Chiefs, sporting one of the fastest teams ever assembled, and possibly the most talented quarterback we’ve ever seen, were pushed to the limit by a depleted team. 

Consider:

• Drew Brees was not at 100%.  His rust after missing 4 games was evident.
• Two All-Pros, Michael Thomas and Deonte Harris were moved to injured reserve
• Three receivers were called up from the practice squad
• The Saints started with 4 three and outs
• Brees started a game 0-6 for the first time in his career
• The Saints only converted one first down
• Tre-quan Smith was lost to injury during the game
• Marcus Williams was lost to injury during the game
• The Saints abandoned their running game very early (as usual)
• The Saints punted 8 times
• The Saints got outgained 411 to 285
• Kansas City won the time of possession battle by having the ball 41 of 60 minutes, better than 2/3 of the time.

This game shouldn’t have been close, but it was. 

The Saints took advantage of good field position when they got it, and got a “bending” performance from their defense.  Brees even connected on a bomb to Emmanuel Sanders.  The Saints hung around and stayed in the game using the guile and experience that veteran teams have. 

I remember the year that the flag football team I coached won an intramural championship.  We lost a game in midseason, in overtime, to the team we would eventually beat in the finals in a rematch.  On the day we lost, I came off the field elated.  I couldn’t believe we’d almost won.  At that moment I was absolutely positive we were going all the way.  Why?  Because we had gone to overtime, and we couldn’t have played worse.  It was a horrible performance.  Our quarterback was off, we dropped passes, we were a step slow on defense all day – we just stunk.  But there we were, still tied after regulation.  We would go on to blow them out in the championship game, as I knew we would. 

This game had that feel.  I’m not saying the Saints are going to win the Super Bowl, but they slowed Mahomes the magician, and even took a 3^rd quarter lead 15-14, before succumbing.  There is little doubt that this is the deepest, most talented roster the Saints have ever assembled. 

Saints fans are scared that with two losses in a row, the top seed possibilities over, and the division still not clinched, the Saints are unraveling.  Four losses mean the Saints now move into the also-rans part of the playoff, where they will have to slog their way through a lot of teams living by the motto “Anything can happen.”  Too true. We know. The Saints have a Christmas engagement with their playoff nemesis the Vikings, then close the season at Carolina.  Amidst all the Crescent City doom and gloom, there are some encouraging signs.  One thing’s for sure.

Meeting KC in the Super Bowl for a rematch shouldn't scare the Saints at all. 

 

Saints Report #13 - December 13, 2020

If you are a Saints fan there are a couple of things you know that were reaffirmed in the 24-21 loss to the Eagles:

1. The Saints have a history of making a first-time quarterback look like the 2^nd coming of Joe Montana.  That’s a tradition that dates back to, well, Joe Montana, who came off the bench and rallied the 49’ers over the Saints, beginning his storied career.
2. The Saints throw in a clunker ever year.  Every NFL team does.  It’s why no NFL team has gone unbeaten since 19Mercury Morris.  (72).
3. Sometimes Drew Brees pulls out a game that the Saints don’t deserve to win.  The Saints played poorly enough to lose Sunday to the Eagles and they did.  Drew Brees was not the quarterback Sunday.
4. Taysom Hill fumbles once a game.
5. There’s one sure way to pull a major upset.  That is to run the ball effectively and control the clock.  The Eagles had 246 yards rushing and two players over 100 yards for the game.  That breaks a long streak of over 50 games without anyone having over 100 yards rushing.  It was evident on the Saints first play from scrimmage, when they dropped back to pass, that their priorities were wrong. 
6. Kickers slumping in December is not a good sign.  Wil Lutz is in a slump.
7. Losing the sack race 5-0 is another bad sign. 
8. And finally just a weird sign.  With the Saints needing to recover a desperation on-side kick at the end of the game, why was it Thomas Morestead on the ground fighting for the ball in a scrum?  That’s just weird.

The Saints lacked any semblance of luster in their trip to Philadelphia.  There were a lot of flashy plays that will make the highlights, but the truth of the matter is that the Saints lost this game on the line of scrimmage, right where most games are won or lost.  Joe Montana-to-be Jalen Hurts was not contained in the pocket as the Saints defensive ends constantly crashed down on the line, only to see Hurts sprinting around the end.  The highly praised defensive line got pushed around all day. 

The offensive line fared no better, as the Saints dominant running game hibernated.  Taysom Hill struggled much of the day, looking like Rick Ankiel at times on his throws.  

The nail in the coffin came with 10 minutes left in the 4^th.  The Saints had pulled to within 17-14.  Their next drive was stalled at the Eagles 42 and it was 4^th and 2.  They needed a 1^st desperately and it would seem that confidence in the running game would dictate one of Hill’s option runs.  But to the Saints, 2 yards to go is a passing down. 

Hill rolled out, was sacked and fumbled, which didn’t really matter.  It looked liked Hill was going deep rather than focusing on the 2 yards he needed to sustain the drive.  The Eagles capitalized with a final td drive.  Hill made some good throws, but he takes too many sacks and still has a grip problem.  In other words he looks like the rookie quarterback he really is. 

So, just like that the Saints went from a first round bye, to having to play a dangerous first round playoff game.  The chances of them beating Kansas City next week are two, and you know which two.  Whether or not its Brees or Hill is of little import.  The road to the Super Bowl now almost certainly goes through Green Bay and the Saints are not a team built for the frozen tundra.  My original prediction for the Saints was 11-5 and suddenly that seems like a possibility. 

With a clunk, expectations have fallen and things have gotten more challenging.  Saints fans know it.  They’re used to it.

Saints Report #12 - December 6, 2020

Familiarity breeds familiarity.  The Saints and Falcons are familiar to each other.  They don’t like each other much.  Neither do the fan bases.  So, the Saints 21-16 win Sunday should make Saints fans happy.  You know, a W is a W and all that.  It was the 9^th straight win on the season, and moved the Saints to 8-0 without Drew Brees in the last 2 years. 

But it should have been a lot easier. 

The game almost got away because, as is often the case, Sean Payton was thinking too much.  This year, as is often the case, the Saints defense came through to save Sean some embarrassment.

Going into the 4^th quarter the Saints had been dominant and led 21-9.  Just like two weeks ago, the Falcons had only been able to muster 3 field goals.  The Saints recovered a Matt Ryan fumble and set up shop on the Falcons 18 yard line, poised to put the game away.  Four plays later the Saints had the ball on the 7, first and goal.  To almost any coach in America, it’s time to pound the ball and run the clock. 

To Sean Payton, it’s time to experiment.

A two yard completion set them up on the 5.  Then Taysom Hill, who fumbles like he’s doing a rendition of Tiki Barber, coughed it up on the most unnecessary scramble this side of a Waffle House.  The Falcons recovered, and recovered the momentum that’s been missing since a certain Super Bowl.  The Falcons would be assured of 3 more possessions.  You do the math.  They scored on their first drive, but fizzled after that, and the Saints held on, watching the next two drives ending with a Ryan pass falling to the end zone turf.  Fortunately, the Falcons fizzle a lot and the Saints stayed in the driver’s seat for top seed. 

So, let’s talk Taysom.  First, we must acknowledge that we have been spoiled by the accuracy and analysis of Drew Brees.  Taysom had a good game, except for the fumbleitis.  He put it on the carpet 3 times.  That’s not good.  But he’s better than I thought he would be with his accuracy, and he puts figurative mustard on the ball.  He makes up his mind pretty quickly where he’s going with it, and soon the defenses are going to feast on that.  His running ability adds a dimension, but also a couple of risks.  He may indeed be the quarterback of the future for the Saints, but I promise there will be growing pains and mistakes ahead.  Right now, the Saints defense is playing so well that they can be a giant mistake eraser.  That won’t always be the case.  But, Taysom is 3-0 and he’s done what he had to do.

As for Payton, despite his penchant for experimentation, you’ve got to give him credit.  The reason the Saints have done so well without Brees is their ability to game plan.  It’s rare that the Saints don’t have a top-notch game plan. 

The first challenge of a coach in the NFL is to win your division.  After Carolina won the division three Cam Newton years in a row, the Saints can  clinch their 4^th straight division championship. If they beat Carolina in the final game of the season, they will be the first NFC South team to ever sweep the division. 

Because of the familiarity factor, splitting the 6 division contests and winning most of the rest of your games, is a pretty good strategy.  Payton has been better than that.  This is the 8^th time the Saints have swept the Falcons since Payton arrived.  His division won-loss record goes like this:

20-8 over Falcons
16-12 over Panthers
18-10 over Bucs

The Saints control their destiny, but will probably have to win out to get the bye, as Green Bay shows no signs of faltering.  The biggest test will be Kansas City in two weeks.  The Saints aren’t familiar with them.  The rest of the football world is.